Wow – the last six months are an absolute blur. Mike and I did our best to keep up with the fast-paced market that was the first 6 months of 2015.
A highlight of that 6 months: Many of you made it over to check out the new office space and enjoy a coffee with us – Thank you!:) The offer always stands, so if you have not made it by, or would like to discuss your real estate goals and needs, we would love to see you!
A quick summary of this report: Continued cautious optimism with a dash of uncertainty, and It is a good time to live in Ontario, and more directly, Guelph.
National and International Indicators
Ontario numbers and forecasts
Guelph and area data and forecasts
Summary and opportunities
1 – National and International Data and Forecasts
Not much has changed here. Global economic uncertainty remains a factor. Some economic analyst continue to state that the Canadian Real Estate market is overvalued and destined for correction. Some are saying that that over-evaluation only exists in a few major city’s and will remain stable so long as the U.S. economy continues to climb. My opinion of what we as individuals can to attempt to offset risk of over-evaluation: keep household debt under control. Build both equity and savings as aggressively as you can. Do not buy a home that is outside your financial comfort zone.
According to a recent report, READ IT HERE ,the primary area’s of over-evaluation appear to be Toronto and Vancouver and it further points out that once their real estate value increases of 2015 are stripped out of the equation the national average is much nearer to 3.1%…which is respectably within reason.
Builder restraint on Multi-unit house remains to be of great importance, the numbers suggest that restraint is being applied,,,but I feel they could do better. And yes, it would not be good if too much restraint was applied as that would cause a jump in multi-unit pricing and lead to further complications. The forecast is for small growth of multi-unit starts here in Ontario. If any growth is seen, it will be the first we have seen in 3 years in Multi-unit starts….so again, not bad, but I am not convinced we need to have any growth, not locally at the very least.
The lower Canadian dollar continues to put Ontario in a good position for economic growth. Guelph’s employment numbers help to substantiate this.
GDP for Canada in 2014 saw growth of 2.3%. The forecast is growth of 2% in 2015 with the range of uncertainty being between 1.4% – 2.6%.
GDP for U.S. in 2014 saw growth of 2.4%. They saw negative growth in the first quarter of 2015 but are expecting a positive growth of 1.5% – 3% in the second quarter.
Mortgage rates have gone lower again! A historical result of such reductions being an increase in market activity by 10% over the next 6 months. This recent reduction of rates continues to counter the hopeful and optimistic CMHC reports of previous quarters and years where the projection was for a small increase in interest rates by mid 2015. Does lowering the rates suggest the Bank of Canada is concerned about the strength of our economy? Short answer = yes. How long can this go on for? Good question. Best thing we can all do? Do the best we can in our independent ventures and lives and do our darnedest not to be pulled into the “buy today, pay later” trap of modern finances. Are there ways to take advantage of such low rates? Most definitely.
2 – Ontario’s Numbers and Forecasts
As per previous reports, Ontario is still expected to out-pace the national average for job growth and economic growth thanks to an improving U.S. economy and lower Canadian dollar. What sectors are set for growth? Manufacturing, trade, and investment.
3 – Guelph Data and Forecasts
The TW Q2 Report: VIEW IT HERE
Shares some pretty impressive numbers for the Guelph area;
Median detached sale price in the second quarter was $413,000
inventory increased but so did sales and sale prices (particularly in the downtown core)
Median days on market was 15
South Guelph is seeing some calming of activity though remains, and likely always will, the most expensive part of the city to live in.
Unemployment rate – well if you haven’t been reading the paper of following the city on social media, you wouldn’t likely know that Guelph tied for 1st place as having the lowest unemployment rate in Canada! We are simmering somewhere around a very respectable 4.1%.
4 – Summary and opportunities
Summary: Ontario and Guelph remain to be the place to be in 2015! Let’s continue to make the smart choices we need to make so we may continue to enjoy another great year after another!
1 – Income property. Vacancy rates remain low and rising house prices will only help to keep it that way. One of the few ways to build personal wealth is to invest in rental property. With incredibly low interest rates the option of investing in a rental property only improves.
2 – Infill lots. Particularly in the downtown core. Do you have room for a severance? Perhaps a demo, sever and build a new semi-detached, two detached, etc…?
3 – Down sizing. This option continues hold stronger than ever with record new sales and lacking supply in the detached sectors v.s. increase in supply of single level condo apartment buildings. With an aging population. The other hint here is that single level dwellings will continue to be in strong demand, both as rental or for sale.
If you have any questions about the above opinions and data, please call anytime! We are happy to discus and always welcome the opportunity to reconnect with you.
Q2 2015 CMHC Housing Market Outlook
Q2 2015 TW DATA REPORT
Huffington Post article